Housing fund liquidity risk has once again highlighted, reform is urgently needed
mm round from Nanjing to tighten housing fund lending Speaking
Jie
Executive Director of Housing Policy, Fudan University
the author around the country last November When big open housing provident fund loans, in "First Financial Daily" December 4, 2008 A07 version of an article, "Housing Fund will make ends meet you," an article on the housing fund will soon be a "deficits" and had to tighten their lending policy of the scenarios predicted. As expected, the judge soon be fulfilled. Guangzhou and Nanjing, one after another outbreak of the housing fund flows to deficit phenomenon, Nanjing, is forced to fully tighten the housing provident fund loans policy. At the same time, I believe that the scene of the Nanjing and Guangzhou tip of the iceberg, and many cities, including Shanghai, in the housing provident fund management and operation of the liquidity risk has the same potential.
such as the Shanghai Housing Fund during the first half of this year Guiji the amount of 15.736 billion yuan, up 24.94 percent, an increase in the high range in recent years. but the amount of 8.482 billion yuan over the same period extraction, the amount of 22.939 billion yuan were issued loans, an increase of 111.50%! that is, the Shanghai housing accumulation fund inflows and outflows there are huge "upside down\have to stop brewing since August from the direct payment of a loan, instead of "public interest loans up to switch providers".
from around the end of 2008, the housing provident fund a loan-to-let big gate, after just six months began to have received tight gates, of which the performance of a roller coaster, not only exposed the operation and management of housing provident fund system of geographical division of capital and small, regional supply and demand imbalance, poor resistance to the drawbacks of systematic risk, but also reflect the lack of housing provident fund management center, professional financial risk control and predictability of supply and demand for funds is not strong, a credit policy is too arbitrary. Since housing fund center around only a public institution, has to run billions of NT dollars funding the operation and management of funds safety and risk control has inherent risks exist. This exposed to liquidity risk is only one aspect.
I have been advocating for the housing fund, must coordinate regional pay ratio, increase the national co-ordination against the risk of the use of scale and services to more residents. necessary and feasible reform is to present scattered throughout the gradual transformation of the housing provident fund system, integrated into a unified national policy of housing finance institutions specialized in the implementation of government policy provided the basis of housing finance business strict implementation of norms of risk management and internal control mechanisms. Here we stressed the need to form a unified national system, local branches of business management can have some suicides local circumstances the right and freedom, but still need the National Center and operating principles of unity, more importantly, is the capital, we should implement a national unified centralized scheduling, in order to strengthen overall the anti Fengxian 才能.
Specifically, the author advocates, housing fund corporate loan and investments must Xian Summary precipitation fund balance to a national center, and then through an intermediate carrier mm bank or public housing construction and management company, commissioned by focusing on form, not by the spread of local housing provident fund management institutions operate. Local housing provident fund management institutions are public institutions, there is no risk identification and management. establish a national center can be used to co-ordinate funding of remote operation, increasing capacity to resist risks. while retaining the basic framework of territorial management, not only be mobile accounts are mobile, local funds are also available cross ( paid) circulation. at the National Centre under the aegis of short-term positions around the center of the capital lending and financing of medium and long term compensation. This is to prevent the risk of liquidity around, is also necessary to improve the efficiency of capital approach. in the operation of the national dispatch center, the precipitation Housing Fund of the investment can be more specialized and diversified.
see "Housing Fund will make ends meet you," the article: http://jiech.blog.sohu.com/105842252.html
Background 1: Yangtze Evening News October 10, 2009 reported that "overall tightening of the housing provident fund policy Nanjing\The first adjustment of the real estate policy.'s learned that, due to fund this year, Nanjing's "inventory" significant reduction of the last adjustment, "subject" who buy a house is to reduce the loan amount, repayment ability of individual coefficients reduced from 0.45 to 0.3; In addition, the purchase of an area of 144 square meters of Gaodang Fang, and spouses of any party to re-apply for the loan fund, the credit line are reduced to half of loanable amount. Nanjing, deputy director of Provident Fund Management Center Zhang Mingyuan stressed that the current implementation of the individual up to 30 million to fund the couple up to 60 million ceiling unchanged.
http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2009-10-10/022618797573. shtml
http://www.chinanews.com.cn/estate/estate-grdk/news/2009/10-11/1904107.shtml
Background 2: According to "Business News" in June 2009 17 reported that "over-spending 600 million a month in Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund" deficits \: 1 ~ May Guiji monthly spending more than about 600 million yuan, the amount In doing so need to call in previous years to meet demand. feel the amount of housing fund of funds "distress" of Guangzhou, is brewing a new Housing Fund introduction requirements to fill the "gap." Guangzhou, the amount of housing provident fund loans are showing explosive growth this year, in previous years, the mortgage fund's loan volume of about 10% of the total loan amount, and this year will account for 20%. face the dilemma Guangzhou authorities to seek financial balance at the beginning. sources, Guangzhou, housing fund is brewing new rules: provident fund can be extracted on a monthly basis, but account for half of domestic demand to retain the deposit amount; fund transfers to extract full payment is not allowed to mention; employee or spouse and minor children of families suffering from serious diseases caused by hardship, may apply for extraction; and Guangzhou to buy their houses outside the extraction of the housing provident fund, the property purchased to be my domicile in workers, work, or residence in the spouse location, work, .4 a provision in the most controversial issue raised was "to retain half of the deposit account the amount of domestic demand." in 2008, the amount of 20.292 billion yuan new Guiji calculation, if the interception for six months, 10.1 billion will be stranded per amount of money can greatly ease the pressure on over-paid.
housing fund will make ends meet you
mm "First Financial Daily" December 4, 2008 A07 version Comments
Jie
[when sharp correction in the housing provident fund loans around the limit and use conditions, loan demand, policy makers hope that if, as suddenly as up, but sources of capital supply is insufficient to pay the possible crisis]
the most recent period, many local governments introduced a policy to stimulate housing demand. One noticeable thing is that the provisions of the provident fund loans adjustment invariably become an important local government measures to stimulate housing demand.
such as Beijing, Tianjin, Chengdu, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shenyang , Changsha, Fuzhou, and many local governments to fund the down payment loans down to two percent (Beijing limit with the provident fund loans to buy housing, protection of the minimum down payment is 10% of the room), a substantial increase in credit line, now generally reach up to 60 yuan / household (Beijing maximum limit of 80 million), most of the loan period stretched to 30 years, many parts of the age of the borrower is also relaxed. Chengdu, Shenyang and Henan and other places also have the opening of the off-site fund loan applications. < br> housing fund liquidity worrying
we all know, housing demand is very dependent on financial instruments, interest rate sensitive. As the housing accumulation fund loan interest rates based on policy, always with the commercial mortgage loans there is a gap between the provident fund loans offer rate is very obvious. this many local governments want to stimulate the housing provident fund loans in the housing needs of the residents play a role.
more importantly, the banks change the rules of housing loans is still firmly in control of power in the China Banking Regulatory Commission the hands of the commercial banks for their own credit risk control, to adjust the rules for loans is very cautious, local hard 干涉. but occupancy fund approach has been used on the local housing fund under the central, local governments can directly influence and control The. and housing funds through the last ten years of steady development, but also built up a very substantial pool of assets, such as the end of 2007, the National Housing Fund deposit balance up to 960.5 billion yuan, housing provident fund center developed regions have a size of tens of billions of funds such as Beijing at the end of 2007 reached 70.3 billion yuan.
Here, I am very concerned that parts of central or local government housing fund in the housing provident fund loans were used to change the rules, if fully considered the safety of the housing fund of funds problem? Here I discuss the mobility of the housing provident fund security.
some extent, the housing provident fund deposit with the bank has some comparability, accumulation of funds can not all lending, we must also maintain a sufficient balance is the liquidity to meet depositors are requested to mention the future, or if payment can not respond to requests, there will be the credibility of bankruptcy. China's various commercial bank loans by the CBRC in the strict constraints, in addition to the statutory deposit reserve ratio (currently 17.5% ), savings and loan ratio (loans to deposits ratio and absorption) are not more than 75% of the root of the red line.
denied, until last year, most of the local housing fund centers for various reasons, mainly loans many constraints, resulting in housing funds of funds tend to idle, precipitation is higher. from the country as a whole, the end of 2007 a loan-rate (individual housing provident fund loans accounted for the balance of the housing provident fund deposit ratio Gui Ji), only 52.83 percent, after deducting the necessary funds to pay post-deposition equipment capital of 218.655 billion yuan, accounting for funds paid into the balance of precipitation ratio of 22.76%. But the geographical distribution is very uneven, although some inland and central regions such as Hebei, the end of 2007 a loan-rate Only 27.33 percent, the end of 2008, 10, was 35.51%, there are also many areas, particularly in coastal areas of housing provident fund money is actually in a relatively tight chain condition.
author Fund under implementation throughout the Communiqué order found that the end of 2007 in Hangzhou of a credit rate of 78.4%, Tianjin, the end of 2007 of a credit rate of 81.3%. the same period was 83%, Nanjing, Suzhou is 84.26%. Shanghai in late 2007 to 86.3%. Currently the information available on the authors know, the housing provident fund loans the highest rate of Changzhou city. Changzhou end of 2007, a credit rate of 95.63%, urban areas that figure rises to 97.73%. such a high rate of housing provident fund loans, means that capital flows are likely to make ends meet, will enable local housing fund faces payment risks mm larger liquidity risk. But even where, in a recent wave of government bailouts are also unambiguous, still have actively introduced to relax the conditions of housing provident fund loans to stimulate housing demand policy adjustments. Thus, these areas Housing Fund Centre, liquidity risk inherent in being one step beyond the critical level of risk.
Although housing fund to cash and paid the policy due to various constraints, as ordinary commercial banks so convenient, recent long-term capital outflows have the relative number of measurable and controllable, but still the risk of liquidity problems can not be ignored.
outflow from the housing fund, except to pay people to meet the housing purchase loans commodity demand, pay people well the right to extract individual housing provident fund account balance for the storage of personal housing purchase, construction, repair, renovation and other housing-related purposes, many places are still available for rental housing. and once retired, retirement, due to the loss of working ability so completely leave to migrate to other cities and exit, and cancel the account of the so-called extraction, are able to do all account balances extracted. With the aging population and urban population flow speed, which in some cases where the pressure continued to increase pay .2007 Extraction of the National Housing Fund amounted to 180.878 billion yuan, accounting for 51.05% over the same period the amount deposited in Shanghai because of various reasons .2007 total housing fund and supplement extract the amount of 14.738 billion yuan of housing provident funds, while the total amount of funds that year Guiji Only 23.189 billion yuan, accounting for 64% extraction ratio. taking into account the new year to grant loans Shanghai 28.794 billion yuan (12.16 billion yuan over the same period withdrawn from circulation), extraction and emerging Taken together, the 43.532 billion yuan loans in excess of the amount of 20.3 billion that year Guiji element, only one new issue personal loans to exceed the amount of 5.605 billion yuan that year Guiji.
In addition, the supply of funds from the housing fund flows, the recent and long-term conditions are not very optimistic. loans often demand developed coastal areas, but these areas of housing provident fund coverage has been very high, over 70%, deposit rates are very high level of 7% to 12% of the amount of growth in the future Guiji not much room. especially in this year The grim economic situation, accumulation will be more sluggish volume growth.
2007 National Housing Fund rate at the end (total extract individual, personal loans and buy bonds and the total deposit balance of the proportion of the total) reached 74.58%, Extraction of the year the amount of housing fund and the amount of personal loan and was 401.035 billion yuan, exceeding the deposit amount of 46.743 billion yuan over the same period. This means the end of 2007, nationwide, housing fund additional capital needs are more than new supply. Of course, every year, repayment of loans also, no money Guiji deficit, but has shown more strained liquidity risk.
Therefore, when large parts of the housing provident fund loans adjustment of the amount and terms of use, the demand for loans If, as the policy makers hoped suddenly increased, but the supply source of funds is insufficient to pay very prone to crisis.
System of
fact, a long time, local government / central housing fund policy changes on the local housing fund all with a certain randomness, less considered as a separate housing fund of funds operation of the system should have been within the risk management requirements,
herve leger dress, credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and other aspects of mechanism design is not a scientific, risk prevention management is simple and crude.
current housing fund system, there are still a big problem is that center around the housing fund their own way to operate independently. But because different parts of loans and the use of demand, when some areas are too idle housing fund, but also a serious shortage of capital supply in many areas. Meanwhile, a city the size of the operation of the unit Guiji limited funds do not flow in the case of allocation, poor ability to withstand systemic risk.
In addition, although all around the center of the housing provident fund holds large funds, but everywhere as administrative units to manage. internal control mechanisms are weak and major corruption cases have occurred.
author, but also many scholars have studied the problem of people who recognize the housing fund, housing fund current exposure out of risk prevention, supervision and management, are actually connected, in fact, come from the nature center housing fund positioning. fundamentally, is how to treat the financial system for housing provident fund is a problem. China's housing fund system has accumulated a very large capital pools under the scale, but also engaged in large-scale financial services such as personal loans, but not the CBRC or any sector of the financial regulatory constraints. This phenomenon has historical reasons, but now the situation has not re- continue. housing fund center in the end what kind of institutions? government agencies? administrative institutions? If you are still positioned on this level, it is difficult to solve the housing fund's risk prevention and internal control mechanisms for building. because the government agencies and utilities unit is immune of financial organizations with the risk management capabilities, and not prone to be independent and sound principles.
In fact, in the domestic real estate circles Neibu, as well as relevant government departments, the reform of the housing fund has been discussed for some time . The author's basic view is necessary and feasible direction of reform is to turn around the current housing provident fund system has gradually spread Zhuanbianzhenghe Cheng Wei a Quanguotongyi the Zhuanye policy housing finance institutions in the implementation of the policy Zhengfuguiding the basis of Shang housing finance business strict implementation of norms of risk management and internal control mechanisms. Here we stressed the need to form a unified national system, local branches of business management can have some suicides local circumstances the right and freedom, but still need the National Center and the principle of unity of operation, more importantly, yes, funding to implement the national centralized scheduling to enhance the overall anti-risk ability.
(The author is Associate Professor of Industrial Economics, Fudan University School of Management)
http:/ / www.china-cbn.com/s/cbndailyhtm/dycj/2008-12/04/content_1044192.htm
after I January 9 this year, Bowen wrote, "Housing Fund of liquidity risk requires a high degree of vigilance" , described the issue further and propose solutions to the housing provident fund system for professional and national co-ordination of reform. See the Bowen: http://jiech.blog.sohu.com/107934561.html
Housing Fund's liquidity risk requires a high degree of vigilance
Recently a number of local residents in order to stimulate housing demand, coincidentally on the provision of housing provident fund loans was great extent. Among the major initiatives to fund the down payment loans down to 2 percent (the lowest Beijing 10% down payment), a substantial increase lines of credit (up to 800 000 Shanghai, Beijing, up 1.04 million), loan term generally stretched to 30 years in many places the age of the borrower is also relaxed. Some places there are open the remote fund loan applications.
policy adjustments in the end they will have much demand for housing throughout the stimulus effect remains to be seen, however,
cheap herve leger dresses, the author has in interest in these policy changes, if properly implemented, may contain a considerable financial risks, especially financial center housing fund liquidity risk.
housing fund deposits and loans with the ordinary commercial banks deposit and lending very comparable, accumulation of funds can not all lending, we must also maintain a sufficient balance liquidity to meet deposit is one possible future is 请求 mentioned Otherwise, if the balance of Wufa response Zhi Fu Zi Jin requirements, there will be the credibility of bankruptcy. Dangqian China for various commercial banks in lending subjected to stringent sanctions of the CBRC, in addition to the statutory deposit reserve ratio for deposit and loan ratio (loans to deposits ratio and absorption) are not more than 75% of the root of the red line. before the national financial community that this is too conservative, but this financial crisis came, that this piece of the system is that is the reason why China's financial institutions has remained relatively stable and adequate flow of important institutional guarantees.
despite the undeniable, from the country as a whole, the housing fund of funds is widely considered to be in too much idle state, the precipitation rate higher. Ministry's data, the National Housing Fund Guiji the end of 2007 the balance of funds deposited 960.5 billion, a credit rate (individual housing provident fund loans accounted for the balance of the housing provident fund deposit ratio) was 52.83%, after deducting the necessary equipment After the deposition of funds to pay money to 218.655 billion yuan. but the regional distribution is uneven, the central and western provinces in the majority of the housing provident fund loans were less than 50%, as less than 30% of Hebei Province, even when the city of the eastern coastal developed areas fund a loan-rate housing more than 75% or more generally, which means that the housing fund of funds in these areas are actually in a chain of more or very tense situation.
around the provident fund in the annual bulletin of the order based on the implementation, I found, Hangzhou the end of 2007 of a credit rate of 78.4% over the same period a margin rate of 81.3% in Tianjin. 83%, Nanjing, Suzhou was 84.26%, Shanghai 86.3%. the information available to the author knowledge, the highest rate of housing provident fund loans city Changzhou is the end of 2007 a credit rate of 95.63 percent, the urban areas the figure rises to 97.73%. such a high rate of housing provident fund loans, means that capital flows are likely to make ends meet, will enable local housing funds face greater liquidity risk.
should know that the outflow channel from the housing fund, except the obligation to pay people for goods to meet the housing needs of home loans, also need to pay the person to respond to individual housing provident fund account balance for the storage of personal housing purchase, construction, repair, renovation and other housing-related purposes, many places are still available for rental housing, even in Shanghai, can apply for housing funds to subsidize the extraction of hardship. and once retired, retirement, due to completely lost the ability to work and so leave to migrate to other cities and exit, and cancel the account of the so-called extraction, are able to do all account balances extracted. With the aging population and urban population flow speed, which in some cases where payments continue to increase pressure Big .2007 extraction of the National Housing Fund amounted to 180.878 billion yuan, accounting for 51.05% over the same period the amount deposited; housing funds rate (the total amount extracted individual, personal loans and buy bonds and the balance of the deposit account balance ratio) reached 74.58%; year housing fund withdrawal amount and payment of the amount of new personal loans and for 401.035 billion yuan, exceeding the deposit amount of 46.743 billion yuan over the same period. This means the end of 2007, nationwide, housing fund new capital needs are more than new supply. of course credit each year, also heading back to no funding Guiji deficit, but has shown a more intense capital chains. Shanghai and other eastern cities, housing fund outflows and inflows is even more intense than Some.
In addition, the supply of funds from the housing fund flows, the recent and long-term conditions are far from optimistic. loans in high demand are often developed coastal areas, but these areas of housing provident fund in the coverage of staff and workers in already very high, reaching more than 70%, deposit rates are very high level, and in 7-12% of basic salary, the amount of growth in the future Guiji not much room. especially the severe economic situation this year, accumulation amount growth will be very weak.
when large parts of the housing provident fund loans adjustment of the amount and terms of use, if the macroeconomic situation remains stable, loan demand appears likely to break out. The Case of Shanghai. Shanghai Housing Fund in 2006 to adjust the policy , the housing conditions of individual housing loan fund accumulated from the deposit over the past two years to six months to relax, the maximum lending limit from the previous 150,000 yuan per household to 20 million credit line from the fund will add 5 per household million increase to 100,000 yuan. provident fund interest rates during the year and commercial lending rate 1.2 percentage point difference, it has still led directly to fund new loans more than doubled within a year, an increase of 108% during the year 2007, loans off than in 2006 rose 54%. But over the same period in the amount of housing fund Guiji grew by only 2.62%, respectively and 13.4%. Thus, in 2005 Shanghai's housing fund lending rates were still only 65.4% in 2006, rising to 70.5% on the end of 2007 even reached 86.3%.
when the housing provident fund loan demand arose, as some local policy-makers would have liked to suddenly rise,
discount Herve Leger, while there was insufficient capital supply sources, to pay very prone to crisis. in the event such situation, not only will the reputation and credit housing funds would constitute a serious blow, but also in turn will allow the public to the social security accounts, medical insurance accounts and other credit-related funds have to question, and even have a ripple effect on other financial systems.
The reason seems very safe and reassuring to the housing provident fund system "unconsciously" in risk could result in such problems, simply for two reasons, first, non-professional regulatory bodies, one housing fund The territorial division of closed management system.
provident fund management center, "not-for-profit independent institution," the legal position is responsible for tens of billions of their actual operation of such fund, hedging, accounting and risk management functions are very not so difficult to have, and can not independently take deposits paid into the fund, provident fund loan, loan bad debt management, liquidity control and a series of specialized financial institutions, financial management capacity is qualified.
In doing with housing funds use are very regionalized, and this form of housing provident fund serious regional imbalance. economically developed regions, the real estate market boom, home buyers in general, the size of loans continued to expand, or even a lack of funds; relatively less developed regions, loans small, large amount of the precipitation. Housing Fund closed to separate the localization of management, inter-regional transfers of funds can not call each other, resulting in some cities, no credit money loans, some cities have loan-money situation. At the same time will result in fund The loan portfolio is not adequate risk diversification. dependency of the housing provident fund management division not only caused our housing funds as a whole is inefficient capital allocation, brings to the local system, the lower the risk of resistance, but also liquidity risks arising source.
localization of non-professional operations and the division of these two features are the housing fund in the development of the legacy of history, but today has been completely unable to meet the development requirements of the new situation must be reformed as soon as possible, otherwise difficult to guarantee the long-term development prospects of the housing provident fund.
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